The Bitcoin market has recently shown signs of hesitation, sparking concerns among investors about whether a bearish phase is emerging. In times like these, data-driven insights become crucial for making informed decisions. One of the most trusted resources in the crypto space is Look Into Bitcoin, a platform renowned for its advanced analytical charts that map Bitcoin’s market cycles with remarkable accuracy.
In this article, we’ll explore four essential charts from Look Into Bitcoin that can help you identify optimal Bitcoin buy and sell signals. These tools are widely used by seasoned investors to time their entries and exits based on historical patterns and on-chain metrics.
1. Bitcoin Investor Tool: A Simple Buy-Sell Guide
The Bitcoin Investor Tool is one of the most intuitive charts for gauging market sentiment. It uses moving averages to create visual thresholds for accumulation and distribution phases.
Here’s how it works:
- The green line represents the 2-year moving average of Bitcoin’s price.
- The red line is the same 2-year moving average, multiplied by 5.
- The blue line tracks the actual Bitcoin price.
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When the price falls below the green line, it historically indicates a strong buying opportunity—a period of undervaluation. Conversely, when the price rises above the red line, it signals a potential sell zone, often preceding a market top.
As of now, Bitcoin’s price remains below the red threshold, suggesting we’re not yet in an overheated, sell-signaling phase. This means the current dip could be a strategic accumulation window rather than a warning sign.
2. 200 Week Moving Average Heatmap: The Long-Term Trend Compass
Developed by the well-known analyst PlanB, the 200 Week Moving Average Heatmap is a powerful tool for identifying long-term market cycles.
This chart features:
- A purple line representing the 200-week (nearly 4-year) moving average.
- A black line showing Bitcoin’s actual price.
- Colored dots indicating the monthly percentage change relative to the moving average.
The heatmap uses color intensity to reflect momentum:
- Red dots signal high momentum and overheating—historically aligned with market peaks and ideal sell zones.
- Blue or cooler-colored dots near the moving average indicate accumulation phases—prime buy zones.
Currently, the latest dot appears as a light greenish hue, far from the red extremes. This suggests the market hasn’t reached euphoric levels yet. With price still trading close to—but not excessively above—the 200-week MA, the heatmap supports a hold or accumulate strategy.
🔍 Pro Tip: This chart aligns closely with Bitcoin’s halving cycles. Major bull runs typically begin 6–12 months after price stabilizes above the 200-week MA.
3. The Puell Multiple: Tracking Miner Behavior
Created by analyst David Puell, the Puell Multiple focuses on Bitcoin miners’ revenue dynamics—a critical factor in supply pressure.
Miners are often called "forced sellers" because they must cover operational costs (like electricity and hardware) and frequently sell newly mined BTC to stay profitable.
The Puell Multiple is calculated by dividing:
Miners’ daily issuance value (in USD) by their 365-day moving average.
Here’s how to interpret it:
- When the Puell Multiple enters the high red zone, miners are earning abnormally high revenues, leading to increased selling pressure—often a sign to take profits.
- When it drops into the green zone, miner revenues are low, meaning fewer coins are being sold. This often marks a bottom and a strong accumulation zone.
Recent data shows the Puell Multiple is rising but hasn’t entered the red overheating zone yet. This indicates growing miner profitability but not yet at panic-sell levels. It’s a cautious green light for holding, with attention needed as values climb.
4. Stock-to-Flow Model: Predicting Scarcity-Driven Price Movements
Also developed by PlanB, the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) Model is one of the most debated yet influential frameworks in Bitcoin analysis.
The model is based on a simple concept: scarcity drives value.
- Stock = existing Bitcoin supply.
- Flow = new supply issued annually (via mining).
- The ratio increases every four years after each halving, reducing new supply.
The S2F model plots Bitcoin’s price against its evolving S2F ratio, showing a strong historical correlation. The chart features:
- A red staircase-like line that spikes after each halving.
- Price tends to follow this trajectory, often overshooting post-halving due to speculative demand.
Currently, Bitcoin’s price is still climbing within the expected S2F range. While it hasn’t yet broken into the bright green "parabolic" zone seen in previous cycles (e.g., 2017, 2021), the model suggests significant upside potential—possibly toward $100K–$120K—if historical patterns repeat.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Are these charts reliable for predicting Bitcoin price?
A: While no model guarantees future prices, these charts are based on long-term data and on-chain economics. They’re best used as guides, not crystal balls—combine them with other indicators for better accuracy.
Q: Should I sell Bitcoin if one chart shows a red signal?
A: Not necessarily. Use multiple charts together. For example, if both the Puell Multiple and 200W MA Heatmap show red, the sell signal strengthens. Divergences are common—wait for convergence.
Q: What if Bitcoin price breaks the Stock-to-Flow model?
A: It already has—multiple times. The S2F model is a long-term trend indicator, not a short-term predictor. Deviations happen during macro shocks or regulatory news, but reversion to trend is common over time.
Q: How often should I check these charts?
A: Weekly or bi-weekly reviews are sufficient. These tools reflect macro cycles, not day-to-day noise. Over-monitoring can lead to emotional decisions.
Q: Can beginners use these tools effectively?
A: Yes! Start with the Bitcoin Investor Tool and 200W MA Heatmap—they’re visual and easy to interpret. As you learn, add Puell Multiple and S2F to your analysis stack.
Q: Where can I access these charts for free?
A: All four charts are available on Look Into Bitcoin’s official website. No signup or payment is required to view the public versions.
Final Thoughts: Patience Pays in Bitcoin Cycles
The current market lull doesn’t signal doom—it may be a preparation phase for the next leg up. With all four indicators showing no extreme overbought conditions, the data suggests we’re still in a healthy accumulation or early growth stage.
Rather than reacting to short-term dips, use tools like these to stay grounded in long-term trends. Remember: successful Bitcoin investing isn’t about timing every tick—it’s about recognizing macro phases and acting with discipline.
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Disclaimer: This article does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions. Market conditions change rapidly—use these tools as part of a broader strategy.