The cryptocurrency market has once again turned its attention to Ethereum (ETH), as recent price action and technical patterns suggest a potential deep correction ahead. After a prolonged rally that defined much of the 2023–2024 bull cycle, ETH now faces mounting bearish pressure, with key indicators pointing to a possible downturn. With prices slipping below critical support levels and sentiment shifting, investors are asking: Is this the end of the ETH bull run—or just a healthy pullback before the next leg up?
Ethereum’s 357-Day Downtrend: Bull Market Fatigue?
On March 4, Ether hit a yearly low of $1,996—the lowest since November 2023—marking a significant turning point in market sentiment. Within 24 hours, nearly $100 million in ETH long positions were liquidated across major exchanges. Simultaneously, open interest (OI) in ETH futures dropped by 10.31%, signaling waning trader confidence.
This extended downward trajectory, now spanning 357 days, suggests that the broader bull market enthusiasm may have faded for Ethereum. While short-term rebounds have occurred—such as a 12% recovery to $2,242 from the recent low—the underlying trend remains bearish.
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Technical Red Flags: The Double Top Pattern
One of the most concerning technical formations currently visible on Ethereum’s weekly and monthly charts is the double top pattern—a classic reversal signal in technical analysis.
A double top occurs when an asset tests a resistance level twice but fails to break higher, followed by a breakdown below the neckline (the support level between the two peaks). Once confirmed, this pattern often leads to a measured move downward—typically equal to the distance between the peak and the neckline.
According to crypto analyst Nebraskangooner, who has over 379,900 followers, the measured target for this formation points to approximately $1,200, which represents a 42% decline from current levels. If realized, such a drop would mark one of the deepest corrections in ETH’s history outside of major market crashes.
Additionally, Ethereum’s weekly closing price has now fallen below its 980-day ascending trendline—a level that has held since the June 2022 cycle low. Breaking below such a long-term support structure often signals a structural shift in market dynamics and can erode long-term investor confidence.
Market Sentiment and On-Chain Data: Pain Across Holders
On-chain metrics further reinforce the growing pessimism among ETH holders. Between December 1, 2024, and March 4, 2025, Ethereum lost 50% of its value in just 78 days, wiping out more than $250 billion in market capitalization.
IntoTheBlock data reveals a grim reality: only 26% of all active Ethereum addresses are currently profitable. In contrast, 70% are underwater, while just 4.46% are at breakeven. This widespread unrealized loss creates strong selling pressure, especially if prices fail to recover quickly.
Such conditions often precede capitulation events—where weak hands exit en masse—potentially setting the stage for a bottoming process later in the cycle.
Potential Catalysts for Recovery
Despite the bearish outlook, several fundamental developments could reignite investor interest in Ethereum.
The Pectra upgrade, successfully deployed on the Sepolia testnet on March 5, marks a significant step forward for the network. While not expected to trigger immediate price gains, it represents ongoing improvements in scalability, security, and user experience—key factors for long-term adoption.
Gabriel Halm, research analyst at IntoTheBlock, noted:
“While the upcoming Pectra upgrade may not spark an instant rally, it underscores Ethereum’s commitment to continuous evolution—a trait that strengthens its foundational value.”
Moreover, some analysts draw parallels between ETH’s current state and Bitcoin’s price behavior in 2023, before its explosive bull run. Analyst Louie suggests that similar structural patterns, market psychology, and macro catalysts could allow Ethereum to “rhyme” with BTC’s past performance—potentially leading to a delayed but powerful recovery in late 2025 or early 2026.
BTC-ETH Correlation Breakdown
Historically, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum have moved in tandem—bull markets lifted both assets, while bear markets dragged them down together. However, recent analysis by market expert Matthew Hyland suggests this correlation may be weakening.
Hyland argues that while BTC continues to show relative strength, ETH is undergoing its own independent correction. He states:
“Until a year ago, everything was moving in sync—bull or bear. Now it’s a mixed bag.”
This decoupling could indicate maturation in the crypto market, where assets begin to trade based on individual fundamentals rather than broad sector momentum.
Relative Strength Index: Oversold But Not Overbought
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on Ethereum’s weekly chart recently plunged to multi-year lows—a sign of extreme oversold conditions. While this confirms the bearish momentum, it also raises the possibility of a relief rally.
Extended periods of oversold readings often precede counter-trend bounces or even full-scale reversals—especially when combined with positive catalysts like protocol upgrades or macroeconomic easing.
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FAQ: Your Questions About Ethereum’s Price Outlook
What is a double top pattern in crypto trading?
A double top is a bearish reversal pattern where an asset reaches a high twice but fails to break through resistance. After failing the second time, it breaks below the support level (neckline), indicating increased selling pressure. The projected downside target is typically equal to the distance from the peak to the neckline.
Why is Ethereum underperforming Bitcoin?
Several factors contribute to ETH's underperformance: lower speculative interest post-upgrades, slower narrative momentum compared to Bitcoin ETFs, and investor rotation toward perceived "safer" assets during uncertain markets. Additionally, Ethereum’s roadmap progress hasn’t yet translated into immediate price catalysts.
Can Ethereum recover from a 42% drop prediction?
Yes. While a move toward $1,200 would be painful short-term, historical cycles show that deep corrections often lay the foundation for stronger rallies. If network usage grows and upgrades like Pectra improve scalability and adoption, ETH could re-enter a bullish phase in the next cycle.
How many Ethereum addresses are currently losing money?
As of early March 2025, approximately 70% of all active Ethereum addresses hold ETH at a loss, according to IntoTheBlock. Only 26% remain profitable—a sign of widespread market pain following the recent correction.
Does the Pectra upgrade affect ETH’s price directly?
Not immediately. The Pectra upgrade enhances account abstraction and improves wallet usability and security. While these are positive long-term developments, they don’t create instant demand spikes like ETF approvals or halvings might. However, they strengthen Ethereum’s ecosystem resilience and utility.
Is now a good time to buy Ethereum?
That depends on your investment horizon. Short-term risks remain high due to technical breakdowns and weak sentiment. However, long-term investors may view this period as an opportunity to accumulate ETH at lower valuations—especially if confidence returns later in 2025 amid further protocol improvements.
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Final Thoughts: Bottoming Out or Further Downside?
Ethereum stands at a crossroads. While technical indicators paint a cautionary picture—with double top formations, broken trendlines, and widespread holder losses—the fundamentals still support long-term optimism.
The combination of ongoing network upgrades, strong developer activity, and resilient ecosystem growth suggests that even if ETH enters a prolonged consolidation or deeper correction, it may emerge stronger in the next bull cycle.
For now, traders should monitor key support levels around $1,950–$1,800 and watch for signs of capitulation or accumulation. A sustained weekly close above $2,300 could invalidate bearish scenarios and reopen the path toward higher highs.
Until then, caution—and strategic preparation—is advised.
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