The cryptocurrency market has faced significant turbulence in recent months, and Hedera Hashgraph (HBAR) has not been immune to the downturn. As of Thursday, the HBAR token was trading at $0.20—down more than 50% from its peak earlier this year. Despite this pullback, growing on-chain activity, strong technical indicators, and rising investor confidence suggest that HBAR could be poised for a meaningful recovery. Below are three compelling reasons why the HBAR price may surge in the near term.
Growing Stablecoin Supply Signals Ecosystem Strength
One of the most promising signs of Hedera Hashgraph’s expanding utility is the rapid growth in stablecoin circulation on its network. The total market capitalization of stablecoins on Hedera has reached a record high of over $182 million, reflecting increased adoption and trust in the platform’s infrastructure.
Notably, USD Coin (USDC) has seen explosive growth on the Hedera network. From just $6.8 million in stablecoin valuation a year ago, the amount surged to $38 million in January 2025 and has continued climbing. This sustained increase indicates that developers, institutions, and users are increasingly choosing Hedera for fast, low-cost, and secure transactions.
A rising stablecoin supply often correlates with higher on-chain activity—such as decentralized finance (DeFi) transactions, cross-border payments, and tokenized assets. When users bring stablecoins onto a blockchain, it typically means they plan to use them for real-world applications rather than speculative trading. This kind of organic growth is a strong fundamental indicator that the Hedera ecosystem is gaining traction.
Rising HBAR Exchange Outflows Suggest Accumulation
Another bullish signal comes from on-chain investor behavior: HBAR exchange outflows are accelerating. According to data from CoinGlass, over $18 million worth of HBAR tokens** have been withdrawn from centralized exchanges in the past two weeks alone. On a year-to-date basis, outflows exceed **$100 million.
This trend is significant because tokens held on exchanges are generally more liquid and easier to sell—often indicating short-term trading or bearish sentiment. In contrast, when investors move their holdings to self-custody wallets (like hardware or software wallets), it signals long-term confidence in the asset’s future value.
Sustained outflows reduce the circulating supply available for immediate sale, which can create upward pressure on price during periods of renewed demand. Historically, such accumulation phases have preceded major price rallies across various cryptocurrencies.
The current movement suggests that HBAR holders believe the current price level is undervalued and are positioning themselves for a potential rebound. This kind of organic accumulation—driven by retail and institutional investors alike—is far more sustainable than hype-fueled pumps.
Strong Technical Setup Points to Bullish Breakout
Beyond fundamentals and on-chain metrics, technical analysis also supports a potential upside move for HBAR. The daily price chart reveals a falling wedge pattern formed during the first quarter of 2025—a classic bullish reversal formation characterized by two converging downward trendlines.
Falling wedges typically indicate weakening selling pressure and often precede strong upward breakouts, especially when accompanied by rising volume. In HBAR’s case, the pattern aligns with improving market structure and growing investor interest.
Additionally, HBAR is currently forming what some analysts identify as a broadening wedge (or "megaphone" pattern), which—while volatile—often leads to explosive price movements once resolved. Given the broader market recovery trends in early 2025, the odds favor an upside breakout.
From a moving average perspective, HBAR has consistently held above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which has acted as dynamic support throughout the recent consolidation phase. This resilience suggests underlying buying interest at lower levels.
If bullish momentum continues, traders are eyeing the **23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.3200** as the next major target. Achieving this level would represent a **60% increase** from the current price around $0.20—a move that could reignite broader market interest in the project.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What factors could trigger a surge in HBAR price?
A: Key catalysts include growing stablecoin adoption on the network, sustained exchange outflows indicating investor accumulation, and a technically favorable chart setup showing bullish reversal patterns like falling and broadening wedges.
Q: Is Hedera Hashgraph a good long-term investment?
A: Hedera shows strong potential due to its high-performance distributed ledger technology, enterprise partnerships, low transaction costs, and increasing DeFi and stablecoin activity. However, as with any crypto asset, it carries risk and should be evaluated based on individual risk tolerance and research.
Q: How does HBAR compare to other enterprise blockchains?
A: Unlike traditional blockchains that rely on proof-of-work or basic proof-of-stake, Hedera uses a unique hashgraph consensus algorithm that offers high throughput, low latency, and strong security—making it particularly attractive for enterprise and institutional use cases.
Q: What is the significance of stablecoin growth on Hedera?
A: Rising stablecoin supply reflects real-world usage and ecosystem health. It suggests that businesses and developers are building financial applications on Hedera, which can drive demand for HBAR through transaction fees and staking.
Q: Where can I track HBAR’s on-chain activity?
A: Platforms like DeFi Llama and CoinGlass provide real-time data on stablecoin metrics, exchange flows, and wallet movements for HBAR and other digital assets.
Q: What should investors watch for next?
A: Key indicators include whether HBAR can break above resistance levels with volume, continued outflows from exchanges, growth in total value locked (TVL), and new project launches on the network.
Final Thoughts: HBAR Positioned for Recovery
While the HBAR price has faced headwinds in recent months, underlying metrics paint a picture of resilience and growing strength. The surge in stablecoin market cap demonstrates expanding utility, while rising exchange outflows reflect strong holder conviction.
Technically, the coin is setting up for a potential breakout, supported by classic bullish patterns and consistent support from key moving averages. With a clear target near $0.3200, now may be a strategic time for informed investors to assess HBAR’s position in their portfolios.
As blockchain adoption accelerates across finance, supply chain, and digital identity sectors, Hedera Hashgraph’s unique technology stack positions it as a compelling player in the next wave of decentralized innovation.