The recent rebound in XRP price may be short-lived, as technical patterns, fractal market behavior, and on-chain signals point toward a potential correction of 40% to 50%. Despite a nearly 30% recovery from its four-month low of $1.61 — a bounce that occurred amid rising global trade tensions — growing evidence suggests that this rally could mark the beginning of a deeper downturn.
Bearish Inverse Cup-and-Handle Pattern Emerging
One of the most telling technical formations currently developing on the XRP/USD chart is the inverse cup-and-handle (IC&H) pattern — a classic bearish reversal structure often observed before major corrections.
This pattern forms when price declines in a rounded "cup" shape, followed by a brief consolidation phase known as the "handle," all occurring above a key support level called the neckline. The pattern is confirmed when price decisively breaks below this neckline, potentially triggering a drop equal to the full height of the cup.
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As of April 19, XRP had entered the handle phase of this formation, with the neckline support hovering around $2.00. A breakdown below this level would confirm the bearish signal and open the door for a significant decline.
The projected downside target aligns closely with **$1.24**, representing a drop of nearly 40% from current levels. This figure also converges with key technical indicators: the **200-day exponential moving average (200-3D EMA)**, currently near $1.28, and the previous resistance peak from November 2024.
Notably, veteran trader Peter Brandt has echoed this cautionary outlook, recently suggesting that XRP’s market capitalization could shrink by as much as 50% in the coming weeks — reinforcing the growing bearish sentiment among experienced market participants.
Fractal Price Behavior Points to a 50% Correction
History often rhymes in financial markets, and XRP’s current trajectory appears to be following a familiar cycle. Past bull runs — particularly in 2018 and 2021 — were followed by sharp corrections that brought price back down toward its realized price, a metric that reflects the average cost basis of all circulating supply.
The realized price acts as a psychological anchor for investors. When market price trades significantly above it, most holders are in profit — which can lead to complacency or profit-taking. Conversely, when price approaches or falls below realized value, fear increases and selling pressure tends to build.
In early 2025, XRP surged past $3.20** before losing momentum — a pattern consistent with previous cycle tops. Today, its realized price sits around **$1.00, suggesting that a reversion to fair value could result in a ~50% decline from current levels.
This $1.00 target is further supported by long-term technical analysis. It aligns closely with the **200-week EMA**, which currently rests at approximately **$0.81** — a level previously highlighted by Cointelegraph as a potential bear market floor.
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Profit-Taking Pressure Mounts as Most Holders Are in the Green
Another red flag for XRP’s short-term outlook is the fact that over 80% of addresses are currently in profit. According to on-chain data from Glassnode, such elevated levels have historically preceded major market tops and widespread profit-taking events.
When such a large portion of the network is profitable, the incentive to lock in gains increases — especially if momentum stalls or negative macro trends emerge. With global trade tensions escalating under shifting U.S. policy frameworks, risk appetite in broader financial markets has begun to wane.
This macro backdrop adds weight to the bearish case for XRP. If history repeats itself, we could see a wave of selling triggered by technical breakdowns, amplified by on-chain profit dynamics and weakening investor sentiment.
Odds of New All-Time High Fade Fast
Market sentiment around XRP reaching new highs has deteriorated sharply in recent weeks. According to prediction market data from Polymarket, the probability that XRP will surpass its previous all-time high of $3.55 by 2026 has dropped to just 35% as of April 19.
This marks a significant decline from March’s peak optimism, when odds exceeded 60%. The fading confidence reflects growing skepticism about XRP’s ability to break out amid regulatory uncertainty, reduced liquidity, and cooling momentum across the crypto sector.
April saw a general slowdown in crypto market rallies, coinciding with increased tariff-related volatility and declining risk appetite under anticipated changes in U.S. trade policy. These macro forces are likely contributing to weaker capital inflows into altcoins like XRP.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is an inverse cup-and-handle pattern?
A: It’s a bearish technical chart formation where price drops in a rounded “cup,” consolidates briefly (“handle”), then breaks below support — often signaling a major downturn. The expected drop equals the height of the cup.
Q: Why is realized price important for XRP?
A: Realized price represents the average cost basis of all existing XRP. When market price trades far above it, profit-taking becomes more likely. A return to $1 would bring price close to this fair-value zone.
Q: How reliable are prediction markets like Polymarket?
A: While not infallible, platforms like Polymarket aggregate crowd-sourced forecasts and often reflect shifting sentiment before traditional indicators do — making them useful leading gauges.
Q: Can XRP avoid a 40–50% correction?
A: Yes — if strong buying pressure emerges, regulatory clarity improves, or macro conditions shift favorably. However, current technicals and on-chain data suggest downside risk dominates.
Q: What happens if XRP breaks below $2?
A: A confirmed breakdown below $2 would validate the inverse cup-and-handle pattern, likely accelerating selling toward targets near $1.24–$1.00.
Q: Is XRP still a good long-term investment?
A: That depends on individual risk tolerance and belief in Ripple’s adoption roadmap. Technically, however, short-to-medium term indicators are increasingly bearish.
Final Outlook
While XRP’s recent bounce offered hope to bulls, multiple layers of evidence — from technical chart patterns to on-chain metrics and market sentiment — suggest that a deeper correction may be imminent.
With key support at $2 under threat, and indicators pointing toward a potential return to $1 as “fair value,” traders should remain cautious. The confluence of fractal price behavior, high profitability across addresses, and fading momentum toward new highs paints a coherent bearish narrative.
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That said, markets are dynamic. A surprise catalyst — such as favorable regulatory developments or institutional adoption — could change the trajectory overnight. Until then, the path of least resistance appears downward.
Disclaimer: This article does not constitute investment advice or recommendation. Every investment and trading decision involves risk. Readers should conduct their own research before making any decisions.