Bitcoin’s fourth halving event took place on April 20, 2024, at block height 840,000. The network officially reduced its block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block—a pivotal moment historically associated with bullish price momentum. However, four months later, Bitcoin has yet to show signs of recovery, raising questions about whether the long-standing post-halving rally pattern is losing its predictive power.
The Historical Context: Halving Cycles and Price Trends
Historically, Bitcoin has experienced upward price pressure in the months following a halving. This pattern is rooted in the basic economic principle of supply shock: reducing the rate of new coin issuance while demand remains steady—or increases—should drive prices higher.
Let’s examine how previous halving cycles played out in the four months after the event:
- 2012 (First Halving): Price rose from $12.35 to $86.18—a staggering +579% increase.
- 2016 (Second Halving): Price climbed from $638.19 to $720.97—an +11.12% gain.
- 2020 (Third Halving): Price moved up from $8,566.77 to $10,402.66—a +21.4% rise.
- 2024 (Fourth Halving): Price fell from $63,825.87 to $58,530—an 8.3% decline.
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This marks the first time in Bitcoin’s history that the asset has posted a negative return in the four months following a halving. While Bitcoin briefly recovered above $61,000 in August 2025, it still remains below its pre-halving value, underscoring a notable shift in market dynamics.
Why Is Bitcoin Underperforming This Cycle?
Several macroeconomic and network-specific factors may explain this unprecedented underperformance.
1. Declining Treasury Bill Liquidity
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, attributes part of Bitcoin’s stagnation to shrinking liquidity in traditional financial markets—specifically, the reduction in circulating U.S. Treasury bills.
In a recent analysis, Hayes noted that from April to July 2024, the net withdrawal of Treasury bills removed significant liquidity from the financial system. Since many institutional investors use short-term Treasuries as a safe-yield alternative, their scarcity may have led to capital being pulled from risk assets—including cryptocurrencies.
With fewer liquid instruments available, investors may have de-risked their portfolios, contributing to downward pressure on Bitcoin despite its reduced issuance rate.
2. Miner Selling Pressure
Another critical factor is the increasing financial strain on Bitcoin miners.
After the halving, miner rewards were cut in half overnight—but operational costs remained unchanged or even increased due to rising energy prices and higher network difficulty. As a result, many miners are selling their BTC holdings to cover expenses.
Alkimiya, a blockchain market protocol, highlighted this trend on social media: “Bitcoin miners are under pressure! With falling prices and rising mining difficulty, miners are forced to sell BTC to stay afloat.”
According to data from CryptoQuant, the total value of Bitcoin held in miner wallets has dropped by nearly $9.1 billion since the halving event. This sustained outflow suggests that miners are liquidating reserves at an accelerating pace.
This selling pressure creates a short-term oversupply dynamic, counteracting the deflationary effect of the halving. Moreover, if prices remain low for extended periods, less efficient mining operations may shut down—potentially impacting network security and transaction processing capacity.
3. Delayed Institutional Adoption
Unlike the 2020 cycle, which saw growing interest from institutional investors and culminated in spot Bitcoin ETF approvals in early 2024, the post-2024-halving period lacks a clear catalyst for demand growth.
Although ETFs have brought in steady inflows, they haven’t been enough to absorb the ongoing miner sell-offs or offset macro headwinds. Some analysts believe that broader adoption—such as corporate treasury allocations or sovereign wealth fund investments—has not materialized as quickly as expected.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Has Bitcoin ever gone down after a halving before?
A: No—this is the first time Bitcoin has recorded a price decline in the four months following a halving. Previous cycles (2012, 2016, and 2020) all showed positive returns during this window.
Q: Do halvings guarantee a price increase?
A: Not necessarily. While past data shows a strong correlation between halvings and future bull runs, they are not immediate triggers. Market sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and adoption rates also play crucial roles.
Q: How does miner selling affect Bitcoin’s price?
A: When miners sell BTC to cover operational costs, it increases short-term supply in the market. If demand doesn’t keep pace, this can lead to downward price pressure—even amid reduced issuance from halving events.
Q: Could low post-halving prices impact network security?
A: Potentially, yes. If unprofitable miners exit the network due to low prices and high costs, hash rate could drop temporarily. However, Bitcoin’s difficulty adjustment mechanism helps restore balance over time.
Q: Is it too late to benefit from the 2024 halving?
A: Historically, the most significant gains occur 12–18 months after a halving. While early momentum has been weak, many analysts still expect a bull run in 2025–2026 as supply constraints become more pronounced.
Q: What could trigger the next Bitcoin rally?
A: Possible catalysts include renewed institutional demand, macroeconomic easing (e.g., Fed rate cuts), increased adoption in emerging markets, or technological upgrades like Layer-2 scaling solutions enhancing utility.
Looking Ahead: A Delayed Reaction?
While Bitcoin’s post-halving performance in 2024 marks a historical anomaly, it may simply reflect a delayed reaction rather than a broken model.
Past halvings have often seen muted initial responses followed by explosive growth later in the cycle. Given that many structural supports—such as regulated ETFs and growing global adoption—remain intact, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains cautiously optimistic.
Moreover, on-chain metrics such as exchange outflows and whale accumulation suggest that some investors are treating the current dip as a buying opportunity.
👉 Learn how on-chain data can help predict the next market move.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s 8.3% drop since its April 2024 halving makes this the weakest short-term performance in its history. Factors including reduced liquidity from Treasury bill withdrawals, intense miner selling pressure, and slower-than-expected institutional demand have contributed to this unusual trend.
However, economic models based on scarcity still hold relevance over longer timeframes. The full impact of reduced supply may only become visible in 2025 and beyond.
For investors, patience—and data-driven decision-making—remains key. As always in crypto markets, timing matters less than understanding the underlying fundamentals.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.