The recent price action in Bitcoin (BTC) has sparked renewed debate among traders and investors: has the cryptocurrency bottomed out after a sharp correction, or is further downside still on the table? With BTC briefly dipping below ¥11.2 million ($70,000 USD equivalent) before rebounding toward ¥12.65 million, market sentiment appears to be stabilizing. While broader crypto markets remain cautious, technical indicators suggest a potential relief rally could be on the horizon—especially as macroeconomic conditions and seasonal trends begin to align.
This analysis dives into the current technical structure of Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH), examining key support and resistance levels, moving averages, and trendline dynamics to assess short-term price trajectories. Whether you're considering a strategic entry or managing existing positions, understanding these patterns is crucial for navigating the next phase of market movement.
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Bitcoin: Approaching a Key Resistance Zone?
Looking at the daily BTC/JPY chart, a clear downward trendline remains intact, coinciding with the 30-day simple moving average (SMA30). Price has been trading below the 200-day moving average (SMA200), reinforcing bearish momentum over recent weeks. However, after testing lows near ¥11.2 million, a strong counter-rally pushed prices up to ¥12.65 million—a move that may signal short-term exhaustion in selling pressure.
The convergence of the SMA200, SMA30, and the descending trendline is expected to occur within the next 3–4 days. This zone—around ¥12.6 million to ¥12.8 million—could act as a major technical resistance. If price approaches this area, it may trigger renewed selling interest from short-term traders and algorithmic systems.
Despite the bearish alignment on the daily timeframe, the recent bounce suggests that downside momentum is slowing. A shallow retest of lower levels followed by stabilization could set the stage for a corrective rebound. Traders watching for "buy-the-dip" opportunities might consider positioning cautiously ahead of this potential move, targeting a measured rise of ¥300,000 to ¥400,000 from current levels.
On the 4-hour chart, the ¥12.65 million level aligns with the 90-period SMA (SMA90), which has acted as dynamic resistance in prior sessions. The fact that price was rejected twice near this zone indicates strong overhead supply. However, if bullish momentum regains control and breaks through this barrier, the next target would shift toward the ¥13 million–¥13.2 million range—where the SMA200 currently resides.
For now, the path of least resistance remains slightly upward in the short term, though sustained gains will require decisive closes above key moving averages and trendline resistance.
Ethereum: Lagging Recovery Points to Caution
Ethereum (ETH) has mirrored Bitcoin’s downtrend in recent weeks, with both assets underperforming amid broader risk-off sentiment. On the daily ETH/JPY chart, price continues to trade beneath a well-defined descending trendline and below the SMA30, signaling ongoing bearish control.
Unlike Bitcoin, however, Ethereum tends to recover more slowly during corrective phases—especially in risk-averse environments. Given this tendency, traders may want to adopt a more conservative approach. Rather than chasing early rebounds, waiting for clearer confirmation near resistance zones could improve risk-reward profiles.
The primary resistance area lies between ¥300,000 and ¥320,000—a range aligned with both the descending trendline and recent swing highs. A return to this zone could present an attractive opportunity for short-term "sell-the-rally" strategies. Additionally, while the MACD has shown signs of a golden cross formation, price has not yet confirmed a bullish reversal. Without a decisive break above trendline resistance, any rally may prove temporary.
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On the 4-hour chart, the SMA90 sits around ¥310,000—nearly overlapping with the daily resistance zone. This confluence strengthens the case for viewing ¥310,000–¥320,000 as a high-probability rejection point. Traders should monitor volume and momentum as price approaches this level; sustained buying pressure would be needed to invalidate bearish expectations.
Given Ethereum’s historical lag behind Bitcoin during rebounds, patience remains key. For now, favoring a "wait-and-see" approach until price confirms strength—or weakness—near these critical levels makes strategic sense.
Seasonal Trends and Market Outlook
March marks Japan’s fiscal year-end—a period historically associated with portfolio rebalancing and increased liquidity flows. Similarly, in U.S. markets, many companies enter their first-quarter earnings cycle after December-year-end fiscal calendars. These seasonal dynamics often contribute to short-covering rallies and modest risk-on behavior in late March.
While crypto markets are not immune to global equity trends—evident in recent correlations with U.S. stock indices—the potential for seasonal tailwinds should not be overlooked. After several weeks of negative sentiment, markets may be due for a period of consolidation or mild recovery.
Bitcoin’s current behavior suggests it may be finding temporary footing after aggressive selling. With technical indicators showing early signs of stabilization and macro timing potentially supportive, a measured rally into mid-to-late March appears plausible.
That said, traders should remain vigilant. A failure to hold recent lows or break above key resistance could reignite bearish momentum. Risk management—through position sizing, stop-loss placement, and scenario planning—remains essential.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Has Bitcoin officially bottomed out?
A: Not definitively. While recent price action shows signs of stabilization near ¥11.2 million, BTC has yet to break above key moving averages or trendline resistance. A confirmed bottom typically requires sustained momentum and volume support—neither of which are fully present yet.
Q: What is the next major resistance level for Bitcoin?
A: The next significant resistance lies between ¥12.6 million and ¥12.8 million, where the SMA30, SMA200, and descending trendline are expected to converge in the coming days. A close above this zone could open the path toward ¥13 million.
Q: Should I buy Ethereum now or wait?
A: Waiting may offer better risk-reward odds. ETH is showing early technical signals like a MACD golden cross, but price action remains confined under trendline resistance. Consider entering only after confirmation of a breakout—or prepare for short-term selling opportunities near ¥310,000–¥320,000.
Q: How do seasonal factors affect crypto prices in March?
A: March often sees increased buying activity due to fiscal year-ends in Japan and first-quarter positioning in U.S. markets. While not guaranteed, these flows can create temporary upward pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Q: What indicators should I watch for a BTC reversal?
A: Key signals include a close above the SMA200 on the daily chart, a break above the descending trendline with strong volume, and bullish divergence on oscillators like RSI or MACD.
Q: Is this a good time to take profits on short-term gains?
A: Yes—especially if you’re near resistance zones like ¥12.65 million for BTC or ¥310,000 for ETH. In uncertain markets, locking in partial profits allows you to preserve capital while maintaining exposure for further moves.
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