The cryptocurrency market continued to display heightened volatility during the 25th week of 2025, as price movements, on-chain dynamics, and macro-level developments shaped investor sentiment. This analysis dives deep into the latest on-chain data, market structure, and macroeconomic influences to provide a comprehensive outlook on current trends and future possibilities.
Market Recap: Price Action and Key Support Levels
From June 19 to June 26, Bitcoin (referred to as "Bingtang Orange" in the original text) fluctuated between a high near $31,431 and a low around $26,256 — a volatility range of approximately 18%. Such swings highlight growing uncertainty but also increasing engagement from both retail and institutional participants.
On-chain analysis reveals significant trading activity around the $30,000 level, suggesting strong support and resistance at this psychological price point. Key observations include:
- Approximately 3.36 million BTC were accumulated between $26,000 and $31,000.
- Around 1.21 million BTC were acquired between $20,000 and $25,000.
- There is a 65% probability that prices will not fall below $24,000–$26,000 in the short term.
- Conversely, there’s a 60% chance that prices won’t break above $32,000–$34,000 soon.
These levels serve as critical thresholds for gauging market strength and direction.
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Key Developments Across Global Markets
Regulatory and Economic Shifts
Regulatory clarity continues to shape the global crypto landscape:
- Japan has exempted token issuers from a proposed 30% capital gains tax on paper profits, potentially boosting domestic innovation and investment.
- Australia confirmed its upcoming token classification framework will be "technology-neutral," signaling a balanced regulatory approach.
- Cyprus granted Bybit an operating license, enhancing regional adoption and compliance standards.
- Meanwhile, concerns persist over potential spillover effects from China’s economic challenges, which could influence global risk appetite and digital asset flows.
Traditional financial institutions are also stepping up:
- HSBC launched crypto services in Hong Kong, marking another milestone in mainstream financial integration.
- BlackRock filed for a spot Bitcoin ETF, reinforcing institutional confidence in crypto’s long-term viability.
- Fidelity is reportedly considering acquiring Grayscale, which could reshape the ETF landscape.
Industry and Ecosystem Growth
The crypto ecosystem remains dynamic:
- zkSync announced plans to launch 'Hyperchains' by year-end, aiming to enhance scalability and interoperability.
- Binance reaffirmed its focus on the UAE as a strategic hub and reversed its decision to delist privacy coins in Europe — a sign of regulatory adaptation.
- Over 363 entities, including Nasdaq, Ripple Labs, Galaxy Digital, BlackRock, and Tribe Capital, have expressed interest in FTX 2.0’s relaunch.
- EDX Markets, backed by Charles Schwab, Citadel Securities, Fidelity, RedSeal Capital, and Paradigm, has completed funding — setting the stage for a new institutional-grade trading platform.
Even central figures like Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that cryptocurrencies “seem to have staying power” as an asset class — a notable shift in tone from traditional policymakers.
Long-Term Insights: Assessing Profit Pressure and Market Resilience
Potential Profit Realization Pressure
A key long-term indicator is the percentage of Bitcoin held in profitable positions. Currently, this figure is rising and resembles levels seen during the first breakout above $30,000 earlier in the year — though it hasn’t reached the peak seen at $31,000.
This suggests the market is entering a phase where holders may consider taking profits, creating upward selling pressure. However, actual realized sell pressure remains moderate.
Macro Spot Selling Pressure
Despite growing unrealized profits, overall spot market selling pressure remains within historical norms — similar to conditions during prior breakouts. This alignment between potential and actual pressure indicates market maturity.
High-Weighted Selling Pressure
High-weighted addresses (large holders) show slightly elevated selling pressure compared to previous months. Yet, this increase isn’t dramatic, suggesting whales are not dumping en masse. The absence of extreme pressure is a positive sign for mid-to-long-term stability.
In summary: While profit-taking potential exists, current on-chain behavior reflects restraint among large holders — indicating confidence in future price appreciation.
Mid-Term Analysis: Market Structure and Sentiment Trends
Realized Profit-to-Loss Ratio
This metric tracks the balance between realized gains and losses over time:
- The market has moved past a phase of heavy loss realization.
- Available "lossy" supply — coins held at a loss — is shrinking, reducing downside risk.
- With fewer distressed sellers, the market now faces a test of its ability to absorb profitable supply without collapsing.
A flattening trend in the profit/loss ratio may suggest an emerging bottom — offering opportunities for early-positioning strategies.
Network Sentiment Positivity
Short-term sentiment indicators show a slight decline in participant optimism. While not bearish, this cooling reflects uncertainty amid price instability. A recovery in sentiment will likely depend on sustained price momentum.
Exchange Inflow Ratio
Exchange inflows remain below 49%, indicating low immediate selling intent. This supports the view that most holders are not preparing to exit — reducing near-term downward pressure.
Emerging Market Participation
New participant activity surged earlier but has since cooled. Current levels suggest a return to equilibrium — neither explosive growth nor capitulation. Without strong inflows of new capital or users, price movements may remain range-bound.
Short-Term Observations: Volatility and Momentum
Derivatives Market Indicators
- Risk Coefficient: Neutral — derivatives markets show balanced leverage and positioning.
- Options Open Interest Ratio: Put protection remains moderately high, reflecting hedging behavior.
- Derivatives Volume: Initially spiked with price gains but has since declined — signaling reduced speculative fervor.
- Implied Volatility: Peaked during rallies but normalized as prices stabilized — consistent with观望 (wait-and-see) behavior.
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On-Chain Activity Metrics
- Profit/Loss Transfer Volume: Profit-taking transfers rose during rallies but are now declining. Continued low loss transfers suggest minimal panic selling — a mildly bullish signal.
- New and Active Addresses: No significant spike observed during the rally. However, levels remain healthy — indicating stable engagement rather than speculative mania.
Exchange Net Position Changes
- Bitcoin Exchange Net Position: Significant outflows — coins are moving to cold storage or private wallets — reducing sell-side liquidity.
- Ethereum Exchange Net Position: Gradual outflows accumulating — similar trend suggesting long-term holding behavior.
Stablecoin Flows:
- USDC: Minor inflows
- USDT: Moderate inflows
- Together, these suggest stablecoins are entering exchanges — possibly preparing for future buying opportunities.
Off-Chain Order Book Data
Analysis of major exchange order books reveals:
- Buying interest clusters around $26,000–$29,000 (Coinbase, Binance).
- Selling pressure builds at $32,000–$35,000 across platforms.
This aligns with on-chain support/resistance models and reinforces technical boundaries.
Weekly Summary: Market Outlook and Strategic Implications
Core Market Themes
The broader macro environment remains fragile — geopolitical tensions, economic transitions, and shifting capital flows are influencing digital asset markets. While uncertainty persists, structural developments point toward growing maturity:
- Institutional adoption accelerates.
- Regulatory frameworks evolve toward clarity.
- On-chain fundamentals show resilience despite volatility.
Strategic Outlook
Long-Term
Market faces profit pressure similar to past cycles — but without excessive selling. This environment favors dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategies as supply overhangs are gradually absorbed.
Mid-Term
Market momentum has weakened. Participants are cautious. Liquidity signals suggest consolidation ahead — a period of observation is prudent until fresh catalysts emerge.
Short-Term
Volatility has increased. Trading activity remains active. Positive signals are emerging:
- Declining loss transfers
- Strong outflows from exchanges
- Rising global buying power (especially in Europe and Americas)
However, upside momentum is capped near $32K–$34K. A breakout requires stronger participation or news catalysts.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What does "potential profit pressure" mean?
A: It refers to the percentage of Bitcoin currently held at a profit. As prices rise, more holders become profitable — increasing the likelihood of selling to lock in gains.
Q: Why are exchange outflows considered bullish?
A: When Bitcoin leaves exchanges, it typically moves into cold storage or long-term wallets — indicating confidence in future price increases and reducing immediate sell pressure.
Q: How reliable is the 65% support probability at $24K–$26K?
A: This estimate is based on historical holder behavior and on-chain accumulation zones. While not guaranteed, such levels often act as strong psychological and technical floors.
Q: What could trigger a breakout above $34K?
A: Possible catalysts include approval of a U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF, stronger-than-expected macro data, or large-scale institutional inflows.
Q: Is low derivatives volume a bearish sign?
A: Not necessarily. After sharp rallies, declining volume often reflects consolidation. It becomes concerning only if accompanied by rising open interest or funding rates.
Q: How should traders respond to neutral risk ratings?
A: Neutral conditions favor balanced strategies — consider partial profits on long positions, use options for hedging, or wait for clearer directional signals before aggressive entries.
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