XRP Price Stalls as Whales Recover and Metrics Show Mixed Sentiment

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XRP has entered a period of consolidation over the past week, pausing its strong upward momentum from November and December — a rally that pushed the asset to its highest levels in six years. While price action has flattened near key support zones, on-chain data reveals a nuanced picture: whale wallets are recovering, yet market sentiment indicators remain conflicted. This mix of accumulation signals and mild selling pressure suggests the market is at a crossroads, with both bullish continuation and short-term correction scenarios on the table.

Whale Activity Signals Renewed Confidence

One of the most telling signs of shifting market dynamics is the behavior of large XRP holders, commonly referred to as "whales." The number of wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP has rebounded to 301, up from a recent low of 292 on December 18. This recovery follows a brief dip that raised concerns about potential distribution.

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The stabilization in whale count — now holding steady at 301 — indicates that large investors may be regaining confidence. These holders often have outsized influence on price due to the volume of their transactions. When they accumulate or hold firm, it typically reduces circulating supply and can create upward pressure over time.

Historically, sustained whale accumulation has preceded significant price breakouts in XRP. The current rebound from the monthly low suggests that major players are not exiting the market, but rather reassessing positioning amid consolidation. If this trend continues, it could lay the foundation for renewed bullish momentum in early 2025.

However, it’s important to note that absence of selling does not always equate to aggressive buying. For now, whales appear to be in wait-and-see mode, possibly monitoring regulatory developments and broader market conditions before making larger moves.

Chaikin Money Flow Turns Slightly Bearish

While on-chain accumulation offers a positive signal, technical indicators paint a more cautious picture. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) for XRP has turned negative, currently sitting at -0.07. This marks a reversal from a brief positive spike to 0.02 just a day earlier and a more significant peak of 0.26 on December 23 — a surge that coincided with a rapid price jump from $2.13 to $2.26.

The CMF is a volume-weighted indicator that measures the flow of money into or out of an asset over a set period. A reading above zero suggests buying pressure, while values below zero indicate selling dominance. At -0.07, XRP is experiencing mild net outflows, signaling that sellers are slightly outweighing buyers in the short term.

This doesn’t necessarily point to panic or a bearish collapse. Rather, it reflects profit-taking or hesitation after the recent rally. The fact that the negative value remains close to zero suggests the selling pressure is contained — more of a cooling-off phase than a breakdown.

Market participants should watch for a return above zero as a sign of renewed institutional or retail inflows. A sustained CMF rebound could confirm that buying interest is returning, potentially triggering another leg up in price.

Key Support at $2.13 Holds — For Now

From a price action perspective, XRP has found temporary footing at the $2.13 support level. This zone has proven critical in recent weeks, acting as a floor during pullbacks. Its successful defense has allowed for a modest recovery, keeping hopes alive for a resumption of the uptrend.

Should bullish momentum return, the next resistance level lies at $2.33. A decisive break above this point could open the path toward higher targets at $2.53 and potentially $2.64 — levels not seen since 2018.

Conversely, if bearish pressure intensifies and $2.13 fails to hold, downside risks increase significantly. The next major support comes in at $1.96, followed by $1.89. A drop to these levels would likely reflect broader market weakness or negative sentiment spillover from macroeconomic factors or regulatory news.

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Given the current equilibrium between buying and selling forces, traders should prepare for continued volatility and range-bound movement in the near term.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: What does whale accumulation mean for XRP price?
A: When large holders (whales) accumulate or hold XRP, it often reduces available supply and signals confidence. Historically, sustained accumulation has preceded price increases, though it doesn't guarantee immediate upside.

Q: Is a negative Chaikin Money Flow bad for XRP?
A: A slightly negative CMF (-0.07) indicates mild selling pressure but isn’t inherently bearish. It often occurs after rallies as traders take profits. The key is whether the trend continues or reverses back into positive territory.

Q: What happens if XRP breaks below $2.13?
A: A confirmed breakdown below $2.13 could trigger further selling, with potential downside targets at $1.96 and $1.89. However, strong support and whale activity may prevent a deep correction.

Q: Can XRP reclaim $2.50 in the short term?
A: Yes, but it will require stronger buying volume and positive market sentiment. A breakout above $2.33 would be the first confirmation of renewed bullish momentum.

Q: How do whale movements affect market sentiment?
A: Whale activity is closely watched because large transactions can sway market perception. Accumulation tends to boost confidence, while mass sell-offs can trigger fear and downward pressure.

Final Outlook: Caution Amidst Opportunity

XRP’s current phase reflects a classic market pause — a moment of reflection after a strong move higher. Whale recovery offers hope for future gains, while technical indicators suggest short-term caution.

The interplay between on-chain behavior and market psychology will likely determine the next major move. Traders should monitor both whale wallet trends and CMF readings closely, as shifts in either could signal the start of a new trend.

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With key support holding and no signs of capitulation, the overall structure remains neutral-to-bullish in the medium term. However, without strong volume-backed buying, a sideways grind may persist through early 2025.

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