Bitcoin’s price movements have long followed a predictable rhythm tied closely to its quadrennial halving events. While many investors hope for an immediate post-halving surge, historical data suggests a more gradual timeline. Based on current metrics—especially long-term holder (LTH) behavior and halving cycle progression—the next major bull run may not begin until 2025, despite the expected halving in April 2024.
This analysis dives into the key indicators shaping market cycles, particularly focusing on supply distribution among long-term holders and the timeline between halving events. By understanding these patterns, investors can better position themselves for what lies ahead in the crypto market.
Long-Term Holders Signal Accumulation Phase
One of the most reliable on-chain indicators of Bitcoin’s market cycle stage is the percentage of supply held by long-term holders (LTHs)—those who have not moved their coins in at least 155 days.
Historically, LTH supply correlates inversely with short-term price action. When this metric rises, it often signals a bear market or accumulation phase. Conversely, when it begins to fall, it typically precedes or accompanies a bull market.
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As of early 2025, long-term holders control nearly 76% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply, approaching the all-time high (ATH) of around 78% set in late 2015—just before Bitcoin’s second halving. This level of accumulation strongly suggests that we are still in the late stages of a macro bottoming process.
During bear markets, large investors—often referred to as "whales" or "smart money"—accumulate BTC at depressed prices. They resist selling pressure, choosing instead to HODL through volatility. This behavior stabilizes supply and reduces circulating coins available for trading, setting the foundation for future price appreciation.
In contrast, during bull market peaks, long-term holders begin to distribute their holdings. As confidence grows and prices rise, they take profits, transferring BTC to short-term holders (STHs)—retail traders and momentum investors who enter late in the cycle. This shift marks the top of the market and often precedes corrections.
The current near-peak LTH supply indicates that distribution has not yet begun. Therefore, the market remains in accumulation mode—not expansion.
Halving Cycle Progress: 85% Complete
Another crucial factor is the progression of time between halving events. Bitcoin undergoes a block reward halving approximately every four years, reducing miner incentives and altering supply dynamics.
Crypto analyst @therationalroot visualized the progress of each halving cycle by comparing the elapsed time between past events. According to his model, as of early 2025, about 85% of the time between the 2020 and 2024 halvings has already passed.
This means only about 15% of the cycle remains, equivalent to roughly one year. In previous cycles, Bitcoin entered its full bull phase only after this final segment began—not immediately after the halving itself.
For example:
- After the 2012 halving, Bitcoin's major rally started about six months later.
- After 2016, significant upward momentum began in Q4 of that year—around five to six months post-halving.
- After 2020, the bull run gained steam in late Q4 2020 and accelerated into 2021.
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Each time, there was a lag between the halving event and the start of exponential growth. The reason? It takes time for reduced selling pressure from miners and increasing demand to shift market sentiment from neutral to bullish.
Given that pattern, even if the April 2024 halving occurs on schedule, its full impact may not be felt until late 2024 or early 2025—aligning perfectly with the projected timeline.
Market Behavior Before Bull Runs: Sideways Trends Dominate
A common misconception is that Bitcoin surges immediately after a halving. In reality, historical data shows that sideways price action dominates the months following each event.
After both the 2016 and 2020 halvings, Bitcoin traded within relatively tight ranges for several months before breaking out. These consolidation phases allow weak hands to exit and strong hands to accumulate further.
What made the 2020 cycle unique was the global pandemic—a black swan event that caused massive financial uncertainty and triggered unprecedented monetary stimulus. This environment created ideal conditions for early accumulation before the halving, accelerating investor interest in Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation.
No such external catalyst is evident today. Without a systemic crisis driving institutional inflows or retail FOMO, the market is likely to follow a more traditional path: prolonged consolidation followed by gradual momentum buildup.
Thus, expecting an immediate post-halving rally may be unrealistic. Instead, investors should prepare for a flat or range-bound market throughout much of 2024, with real upside potential emerging only in 2025.
FAQ: Your Questions About the Next Bull Market, Answered
When is the next Bitcoin halving?
The next Bitcoin halving is scheduled for April 2024. It will reduce block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block.
Why does the bull market start after the halving?
Halvings reduce new supply entering the market. However, it takes time for this reduced inflation to affect prices. Bull markets typically begin when demand starts outpacing supply—usually 6 to 12 months after the event.
What does LTH supply tell us about market cycles?
High LTH supply indicates strong conviction and accumulation. When long-term holders control most of the supply, fewer coins are available for sale—creating scarcity. A drop in LTH holdings often signals profit-taking and the beginning of a bull run.
Can we see a bull run in late 2024?
It's possible, but unlikely to be explosive. Late 2024 could mark the start of upward momentum, especially if macroeconomic conditions improve. However, sustained growth is more probable in early to mid-2025.
How do short-term holders behave during bull markets?
Short-term holders tend to buy during rallies and sell during dips. Their increased activity often peaks near market tops, reflecting emotional trading rather than strategic investment.
Should I buy before or after the halving?
Timing the market precisely is difficult. However, buying during the accumulation phase—when volatility is low and sentiment is neutral—is historically more advantageous than entering during euphoric bull runs.
Final Outlook: Patience Rewarded in Crypto
While excitement around the upcoming Bitcoin halving is understandable, history cautions against expecting instant results. The confluence of two powerful signals—near-record LTH supply and 85% completion of the halving cycle—points toward continued consolidation through most of 2024.
True bull market conditions are unlikely to emerge until selling pressure from long-term holders increases and short-term speculation heats up—events that typically unfold one year after the halving.
Therefore, based on historical precedent and current on-chain trends, the next major Bitcoin bull run is most likely to begin in 2025.
Investors would do well to focus on accumulation during this quiet phase rather than chasing premature rallies. Markets reward patience—and those who understand cycle dynamics stand the best chance of success.
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