In a candid and forward-looking podcast discussion, Arthur Hayes—renowned for inventing the crypto perpetual swap and co-founding BitMEX—shared his deep insights on Bitcoin’s price trajectory, the fading momentum of most altcoins, the future of decentralized platforms, and the evolving macroeconomic landscape shaped by U.S. policy and global capital flows.
His analysis blends macroeconomics with on-chain realities, offering a compelling narrative for investors navigating the current crypto cycle.
Bitcoin Price Outlook: $250K by Year-End?
Arthur Hayes remains bullish on Bitcoin, projecting a $250,000 price target by the end of 2025. This bold forecast builds on his long-standing thesis: massive monetary expansion will drive capital into scarce digital assets.
“I still believe Bitcoin can reach $250K this year. While volatility is inevitable, the macro backdrop is increasingly supportive.”
Hayes anchors his prediction in the expected surge of global money printing—potentially up to $9 trillion** across major economies in the coming years. He highlights U.S. fiscal plans that could inject **$5 trillion into mortgage-backed securities and other credit channels, indirectly fueling liquidity across financial markets.
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A key catalyst, according to Hayes, is the potential reinstatement of the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemption, which would free banks from capital requirements on Treasury holdings. This could unleash $1 trillion in bank-driven asset purchases—some of which may eventually flow into Bitcoin as institutions seek yield and diversification.
Unlike traditional assets such as stocks or gold, Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million coins makes it uniquely positioned to benefit from inflationary policies. Its relatively small market cap compared to equities or real estate means even modest inflows can trigger outsized price movements.
Why Retail Still Loves Bitcoin
Despite claims that Bitcoin has become an “institutional asset,” Hayes argues retail interest remains strong.
“Retailers love Bitcoin because it performs—and because it’s easy to understand.”
Among all crypto assets, Bitcoin stands out for its simplicity: decentralized, scarce, and battle-tested. This clarity gives it an edge in mass adoption, especially when contrasted with complex altcoin ecosystems that often lack transparency or real-world use.
Moreover, rising inflation pressures are pushing everyday investors toward high-growth assets. For many with limited savings, allocating even small amounts to Bitcoin feels like a rational hedge against currency devaluation.
The Altcoin Reality Check: Most Won’t Recover
One of Hayes’ most striking assertions is that most altcoins will not see another bull run.
“They lack product-market fit. No customers. No revenue. Just high FDV and hype.”
He points to projects like Berachain and Monad—well-funded, heavily promoted, yet struggling with declining prices due to lack of actual adoption. Their high fully diluted valuations (FDV) make sustainable growth nearly impossible without real earnings.
Hayes draws a clear line: projects that generate real cash flow and return value to token holders—like Pendle and Ethfi—are exceptions. These protocols have built sustainable economic models where user activity translates into yield for investors.
For the rest? He sees them as speculative venture-capital-style bets with poor odds.
How to Pick Winning Altcoins
So how does Arthur Hayes evaluate altcoin opportunities?
“I focus on narrative—the story behind the project and its ability to attract capital.”
But narrative alone isn’t enough. He stresses the importance of cash flow generation and token utility. Early-stage investments are capped at strict price thresholds to avoid overpaying, while mature projects must demonstrate consistent revenue.
“If you buy too high chasing hype, you’ll lose. Buy smart, stay rational.”
While narratives shift quickly, Hayes believes timing and valuation matter more than trend-chasing. A well-priced entry into a fundamentally sound project can yield strong returns—even in a Bitcoin-dominated market.
The Birth of the Perpetual Swap
Few know that Hayes didn’t set out to revolutionize derivatives trading—he responded to user pain points.
Early customers at BitMEX were confused by futures: why did prices diverge from spot? Why do contracts expire?
“We asked: can we build a leveraged product with no expiry? That’s how perpetual swaps were born.”
Launched in May 2016, the perpetual swap solved two problems: it eliminated rollover costs and simplified trading for retail users. Though adoption was slow at first, it eventually became the backbone of crypto derivatives—now used across centralized and decentralized exchanges alike.
Despite creating the instrument, Hayes personally avoids leverage. His advice?
“Only trade with leverage if you have time, skill, and discipline. Otherwise, stick to spot.”
Risk management starts with clarity: define your goals, set stop-losses, and plan entries and exits before emotion takes over.
Will the U.S. Government Buy Bitcoin?
While some speculate about a U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve, Hayes doubts Washington will ever actively purchase BTC.
“Politically, it’s unfeasible. How do you justify buying an asset held by few?”
Instead of direct purchases, he sees potential for indirect accumulation through seized assets or ETF approvals. However, if Democrats regain power in 2028, they might liquidate existing holdings to fund social programs—posing a short-term risk.
Still, any large-scale sell-off would likely be offset by private sector demand and ongoing quantitative easing.
Capital Controls & Global Capital Shifts
Hayes warns of a gradual decoupling between the U.S. and global capital markets.
One trigger? The potential removal of withholding tax exemptions for foreign investors in U.S. Treasuries. If eliminated, foreign demand could wane—pushing capital back into local markets like Thailand or Indonesia.
“The breakup won’t be sudden—it’ll take decades—but it’s already beginning.”
When capital repatriates, emerging market currencies strengthen, boosting domestic purchasing power and spurring local investment booms. This shift could redefine global wealth distribution over the next generation.
Even if foreign outflows occur, Hayes expects the Fed and U.S. banks to step in via money printing—preventing systemic collapse but accelerating dollar debasement.
Why DEXs Aren’t as Decentralized as They Claim
The recent Hyperliquid controversy—where a meme coin (JellyJelly) was allegedly shielded from liquidation—revealed cracks in supposed decentralization.
Hayes acknowledges:
“Hyperliquid isn’t fully decentralized. They protected HLP value over protocol rules.”
But rather than seeing this as a flaw, he views it as a feature: teams prioritizing ecosystem stability may inspire more confidence than rigid adherence to code.
Still, most traders care less about ideology than liquidity and product depth—areas where centralized platforms still dominate.
The Future of Exchanges: Marketing Over Innovation
According to Hayes, exchange competition has plateaued.
“Products are identical. Fees are similar. The real battleground is marketing.”
With traditional banks like JPMorgan entering crypto brokerage, CEXs face existential pressure. If banks offer zero-fee BTC trading funded by broader financial services, platforms like Coinbase may struggle to maintain margins.
His advice for new entrants?
Avoid Bitcoin/USD pairs—they’re low-margin battlegrounds. Instead, target degen traders with meme coins and launchpads.
“Build for speculation. That’s where the volume—and revenue—is.”
FAQ: Your Questions Answered
Q: Is a new altseason possible?
A: Yes—but only after Bitcoin dominates 70%+ of the market. Currently at ~65%, we’re close but not there yet.
Q: Should I use leverage in crypto trading?
A: Only if you’re experienced and have strict risk controls. For most people, spot investing is safer and more effective.
Q: Can stablecoin regulation boost U.S. bond demand?
A: Not necessarily. The stablecoin bill may simply allow banks to issue dollar-pegged tokens—not force them to buy Treasuries.
Q: Are perpetual swaps safe for beginners?
A: They can be, if used responsibly. Start small, avoid excessive leverage, and always understand funding rates.
Q: Will younger generations drive crypto adoption?
A: Absolutely. With skepticism toward traditional assets and retirement systems, Gen Z is more open to digital ownership and decentralized finance.
Q: What’s Hayes’ current portfolio focus?
A: Primarily Bitcoin and Ethereum—with selective bets on cash-flow-generating protocols like Pendle.
Final Thoughts: A World in Transition
Arthur Hayes paints a picture of transition: aging populations clinging to legacy assets, youth rejecting traditional wealth models, governments resorting to money printing as intergenerational conflict grows.
In this world, Bitcoin emerges as a neutral store of value, resistant to debasement and accessible to all.
For investors, the lesson is clear: focus on scarcity, cash flow, and macro trends—not hype.
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The future belongs to those who prepare—not those who chase.
Arthur’s fund Maelstrom exemplifies this approach: low turnover, strategic entries, and a long-term vision anchored in economic reality rather than speculation.
As he prepares to launch acquisition-focused ventures via SPACs, one thing is certain—Hayes isn’t just predicting the future.
He’s building it.
👉 Start your journey into intelligent crypto investing today.