Despite Bitcoin’s impressive 56% surge in 2024, the broader altcoin market has remained relatively muted. While BTC continues to dominate headlines and investor attention, altcoins have yet to experience their signature explosive rally—commonly referred to as altseason. Historically, every major crypto bull run includes a phase where altcoins outperform Bitcoin significantly, often delivering multi-bagger returns in a short period.
So, is altseason still coming? Three key on-chain and market structure indicators suggest that while the season is delayed, it may be closer than many think: Bitcoin Dominance (BTCD), USDT Dominance, and the Altcoin Market Cap (ALTCAP). Together, these charts paint a compelling picture of a market potentially on the verge of a major shift.
Understanding Altseason: What It Means and Why It Matters
Altseason refers to a market phase where capital rotation moves from Bitcoin into alternative cryptocurrencies—such as Ethereum, Solana, Cardano, and various mid- and small-cap tokens. During this period, altcoins often rise faster and higher than BTC, driven by increased speculation, improved market sentiment, and broader capital inflows into the crypto ecosystem.
👉 Discover how market cycles shape altcoin performance and when the next surge might begin.
This rotation typically occurs after Bitcoin has established a strong base and confidence in the overall market is high. Investors begin seeking higher returns beyond BTC, fueling demand for riskier but potentially more rewarding digital assets.
Key signs that an altseason may be approaching include:
- Declining Bitcoin dominance
- Falling stablecoin dominance (especially USDT)
- Breakouts in the total altcoin market capitalization
- Rising trading volumes across major altcoins
Let’s dive into each of these indicators to assess the current state of the market.
Bitcoin Dominance Nears Critical Resistance
Bitcoin Dominance (BTCD) measures BTC’s market cap as a percentage of the total cryptocurrency market. A rising BTCD indicates that investors are favoring Bitcoin over altcoins—often a sign of risk-off behavior or early-stage accumulation.
Currently, BTCD has reached a 1,302-day high, nearing 59.5%, according to weekly chart analysis. This level is significant for several technical reasons:
- It aligns closely with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at 60.43%
- It corresponds to a historical weekly order block and imbalance zone
- It marks the upper boundary of a long-term ascending wedge pattern
Wave theory analysis suggests that Bitcoin’s dominance may be completing a five-wave bullish impulse that began in September 2022. The current phase appears to be an ending diagonal within the fifth and final wave—a structure often seen at market tops and typically followed by a sharp reversal.
Technical indicators reinforce this bearish outlook:
- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a bearish divergence
- The MACD has begun to weaken, signaling fading momentum
These signals imply that while BTCD may push slightly higher, the rally is likely running out of steam. Once a breakdown occurs—particularly below key support near 57%—it could trigger a rapid rotation into altcoins.
USDT Dominance Breaks Down: A Bullish Signal for Altcoins
Stablecoin dominance, particularly Tether (USDT), serves as a proxy for investor risk appetite. When traders move funds into USDT, they’re often exiting volatile assets—a sign of caution. Conversely, when USDT dominance falls, it suggests capital is flowing back into risk-on assets like altcoins.
The weekly USDT dominance chart reveals a critical development: a confirmed breakdown from a long-standing ascending parallel channel that had contained price action since March 2024.
Key observations:
- The breakdown was validated when price retested the channel’s upper boundary as resistance
- RSI dropped below 50 and entered neutral-to-bearish territory
- MACD crossed into negative territory, confirming downward momentum
If this trend continues, USDT dominance could decline toward 4.45%, freeing up billions in liquidity for deployment across the crypto market. This would create fertile ground for altseason conditions, especially if accompanied by renewed confidence in emerging blockchain ecosystems.
👉 See how declining stablecoin dominance can unlock massive altcoin rallies.
Altcoin Market Cap Shows Signs of Breakout
The total altcoin market cap (ALTCAP) has been trading within a descending parallel channel since March 2024—a pattern typically associated with corrective or consolidation phases. However, recent price action suggests a potential shift.
In August, ALTCAP formed a higher low, indicating strengthening buyer interest. Then, in early October, it made its first serious breakout attempt from the downtrend channel—though it was initially rejected.
Despite the pullback, technical structure remains constructive:
- Wave analysis suggests ALTCAP may be entering the fifth and final wave of an upward cycle that began in December 2023
- A confirmed breakout above the channel could propel the market cap toward $1.61 trillion—a 77% increase from current levels
- RSI has moved above 50, signaling improving momentum
- MACD generated a bullish crossover, reinforcing upward bias
A sustained move above the channel resistance would not only confirm bullish momentum but also act as a powerful psychological trigger for traders to rotate into altcoins en masse.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is altseason and how do you know when it starts?
A: Altseason is a market phase where altcoins outperform Bitcoin significantly. It typically begins when Bitcoin dominance starts falling, stablecoin dominance drops, and the total altcoin market cap breaks into new uptrends.
Q: Is altseason confirmed yet in 2025?
A: Not yet. While USDT dominance has broken down—a positive sign—the altseason isn’t fully confirmed until Bitcoin dominance shows sustained weakness and the altcoin market cap achieves a decisive breakout.
Q: How high could altcoins go during the next altseason?
A: Historical cycles suggest potential gains of 3x to 10x for major altcoins, with some smaller-cap tokens delivering even higher returns. A move toward $1.61 trillion in total altcoin market cap is a plausible target if bullish momentum accelerates.
Q: Should I sell Bitcoin to buy altcoins now?
A: Timing the rotation is crucial. Many investors begin gradually increasing altcoin exposure when BTCD shows signs of topping and ALTCAP starts breaking out. Always assess your risk tolerance and diversify appropriately.
Q: Which indicators are most reliable for predicting altseason?
A: The most reliable include Bitcoin Dominance (BTCD), USDT Dominance, total Altcoin Market Cap trends, RSI and MACD momentum indicators, and on-chain liquidity data.
Q: Can altseason happen without a new all-time high in Bitcoin?
A: While rare, it’s possible. Most strong altseasons occur after Bitcoin has stabilized post-ATH. However, sustained institutional inflows or macro tailwinds could fuel altcoin rallies even without new BTC highs.
Final Outlook: Altseason Delayed, Not Cancelled
While Bitcoin continues to lead the 2025 rally, all three key indicators point toward an eventual shift in market leadership. The near-term peak in Bitcoin dominance, combined with the breakdown in USDT dominance and the emerging bullish structure in ALTCAP, suggests that altseason remains on the horizon.
The missing pieces—confirmed breakdown in BTCD and breakout in ALTCAP—are technical triggers that could activate at any moment. Once both conditions are met, we may see a rapid acceleration in altcoin prices as traders reallocate capital in pursuit of higher returns.
👉 Stay ahead of the next market shift with real-time data and actionable insights.
For investors, this means staying vigilant. Monitor these charts closely, maintain a balanced portfolio, and be prepared to act when the signals align. The next major move in crypto may not be in Bitcoin—but in the thousands of innovative projects waiting for their moment in the spotlight.
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