The Bitcoin market has long been defined by its rhythmic, four-year cycles—each fueled by halvings, speculation, and surging investor emotion. But with the rise of institutional adoption, spot Bitcoin ETFs, and corporate treasury strategies, a growing number of investors are asking: Is the 4-year Bitcoin cycle finally over?
In a recent deep-dive conversation, Matt Crosby, lead analyst at Bitcoin Magazine Pro, sat down with on-chain cycle expert Rational Root to dissect whether Bitcoin’s historic price rhythms still hold true—or if we’re entering a fundamentally new era shaped by structural demand and mature market dynamics.
What emerged was a nuanced picture: while the mechanics of the cycle may be evolving, the psychological core remains intact. Below, we unpack the key insights—from on-chain signals and ETF inflows to corporate accumulation and emotional market phases—that suggest Bitcoin’s cycle isn’t dead… it’s just maturing.
On-Chain Data Suggests Room to Run
One of the strongest arguments for the continuation of the Bitcoin cycle lies in on-chain metrics. Rational Root emphasized that current market positioning is far from overheated.
“We’re only about 0.25 standard deviations above the short-term cost basis… In the previous cycle top, we reached four standard deviations above.”
This metric—the average price at which recent buyers acquired Bitcoin—acts as a thermometer for market sentiment. When it spikes far above cost basis, it signals euphoria and potential exhaustion. Today’s modest reading suggests we’re still in the early-to-mid stages of accumulation, not the mania phase.
👉 Discover how real-time on-chain analytics can reveal hidden market trends before they go mainstream.
A More Structured, Sustainable Uptrend
Unlike the parabolic surges of 2017 and 2021, this cycle has followed a more orderly trajectory. Rational Root pointed to a “structured channel” forming since 2023, with steady upward momentum punctuated by key catalysts like the spot ETF approval and the U.S. presidential election.
This pattern reflects a market increasingly influenced by institutional participation. With large players entering through regulated products, volatility is being smoothed—both on the way up and on corrections.
Matt Crosby noted that this structural shift doesn’t invalidate the cycle; it may simply extend its duration. Instead of explosive rallies followed by brutal crashes, we could see longer consolidation phases and delayed peaks.
ETFs Are Reshaping Supply and Demand
Perhaps the most transformative development in this cycle is the emergence of spot Bitcoin ETFs as dominant buyers.
“ETFs alone are already absorbing about 3.5x the daily Bitcoin issuance… and we still have corporate treasuries and organic demand.”
With roughly 450 BTC mined per day, ETFs are now purchasing well over 1,500 BTC daily during peak inflows. This unprecedented structural demand is pulling supply off the market at scale—creating a powerful imbalance that supports long-term price appreciation.
Bitcoin is no longer just a speculative asset traded by retail investors. It’s becoming a reserve asset held passively by institutions, much like gold ETFs in traditional markets.
Human Emotion Still Drives the Market
Despite these structural changes, Rational Root stressed that human psychology remains the engine of Bitcoin’s cycles.
“People have been talking about shortening or lengthening cycles in every single previous cycle… and it wasn’t different then. It might not be different now.”
Greed, fear, FOMO (fear of missing out), and capitulation still define market turning points. On-chain data from this cycle closely mirrors patterns seen in 2017 and 2021—particularly in holder behavior and exchange outflows.
Even with algorithms and institutional flows, it’s ultimately collective sentiment that pushes markets into euphoria—and eventually, exhaustion.
Are We Entering the Euphoria Phase?
Using his widely followed Bitcoin Spiral Chart, Rational Root suggested that the market is approaching the “thrill and euphoria” stage—a period historically marked by mainstream media frenzy, celebrity endorsements, and widespread public interest.
“We’re actually really approaching that thrill and euphoria phase… the next six months are not going to be boring.”
While he avoids making precise timing predictions, Root believes the combination of ETF momentum, halving aftermath, and growing retail re-engagement could catalyze a powerful final leg higher—albeit potentially more gradual than past cycles.
Corporate Bitcoin Treasuries: A New Accumulation Force
Another game-changer is the rise of companies treating Bitcoin as a core treasury asset. Firms like MicroStrategy, MetaPlanet, and Blockchain Group are actively borrowing fiat to buy Bitcoin—a strategy rooted in the belief that fiat currencies will continue to devalue.
“It’s really a bet on fiat money going down and Bitcoin going up… fundamentally, it’s sustainable.”
Root acknowledged past failures during the 2022 downturn (e.g., Celsius, BlockFi), but argues today’s corporate adopters are more strategically sound, using leverage responsibly and focusing on long-term value preservation.
This trend adds another layer of consistent, non-speculative demand—further insulating Bitcoin from extreme volatility.
Price Outlook: $140K–$240K Range Still in Play
When pressed for a price target, Rational Root reiterated his long-standing forecast:
“I’ve always said between 140 and 240… I don’t think we’re going to cross half a million this cycle.”
He cited macroeconomic risks—such as inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical instability—as factors that could prolong consolidation or delay the peak. However, he emphasized that current data doesn’t suggest an early end to the cycle.
Instead, we may see a broader top formation, where price grinds higher over months rather than exploding in weeks.
FAQ: Your Questions Answered
Q: Are Bitcoin’s 4-year cycles still reliable?
A: While institutional adoption is changing market structure, the core cycle driven by halvings and human psychology remains intact—just more stable.
Q: What role do ETFs play in this cycle?
A: Spot Bitcoin ETFs have become one of the largest sources of demand, absorbing multiples of daily new supply and accelerating scarcity.
Q: How do corporate treasuries affect Bitcoin’s price?
A: Companies like MicroStrategy create consistent buying pressure, often using debt to accumulate BTC—betting on long-term fiat devaluation.
Q: Are we close to the top of the market?
A: On-chain data suggests we’re not yet in euphoria. The “thrill phase” may be beginning, but widespread mania—and thus a potential peak—is likely still months away.
Q: Could this cycle exceed $250K?
A: While possible, Rational Root believes $140K–$240K is a more realistic range based on current momentum and macro conditions.
Q: What should investors watch for as warning signs?
A: Key red flags include extreme deviation from cost basis, declining on-chain activity, rising exchange reserves, and widespread media hype.
Final Thoughts: Evolution, Not Extinction
The four-year Bitcoin cycle isn’t over—it’s evolving. Institutional adoption, ETF flows, and corporate treasuries are reshaping how the cycle unfolds, replacing chaotic spikes with more sustainable growth patterns.
Yet beneath the surface, the emotional arc remains unchanged: accumulation, belief, excitement, euphoria, and ultimately, reckoning. For investors, this means opportunity still lies ahead—but so does the need for vigilance.
As Matt Crosby put it:
“If everything starts flashing red… probably not a bad opportunity to maybe lock in a little bit of profit.”
For now, the data suggests we’re still climbing. The journey isn’t over—just entering a new phase.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.