Bitcoin is showing strong momentum heading toward $48,000 in the near term, driven by a consistent historical pattern of price rallies surrounding the Chinese New Year festivities. According to Markus Thielen, head of research at Matrixport and founder of 10X Research, Bitcoin has surged an average of 11% during the period around the Lunar New Year over the past nine years—without a single down year.
This recurring trend is gaining renewed attention as Bitcoin recently broke above the critical $45,000 mark, surpassing a key resistance level at $44,000 that had constrained price action since the launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs roughly four weeks ago. The breakout signals the conclusion of a corrective phase that brought prices down to $38,500 in late January.
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A Proven Seasonal Pattern: Chinese New Year and Bitcoin Gains
Thielen emphasized the statistical significance of the upcoming days, noting that "Bitcoin tends to rally by +11% around Chinese New Year, starting on February 10." His analysis reveals that investors who bought Bitcoin three days before the festival and sold ten days after would have profited every single year for the past nine years.
This consistency makes the Lunar New Year one of the most reliable short-term bullish indicators in the crypto calendar. While macroeconomic factors and regulatory developments often dominate headlines, seasonal trading behaviors—especially those tied to cultural and financial calendars in major markets like China—can exert meaningful influence on asset flows.
The timing aligns with increased liquidity from Asian investors, many of whom receive annual bonuses and red envelopes (cash gifts) during the holiday season. Historically, a portion of these funds has flowed into digital assets, including Bitcoin, contributing to upward price pressure.
Breaking Key Resistance: What $44,000 Means for BTC
The breach of the $43,800–$44,000 resistance zone is considered a pivotal technical development. Thielen described this move as “very important,” marking the end of a correction that tested investor sentiment throughout January. With this level now acting as support rather than resistance, market structure has shifted in favor of further upside.
Technical analysts often refer to such breakouts as “confirmation signals,” especially when they follow extended consolidation periods. In this case, Bitcoin spent several weeks trapped below $44,000 despite growing institutional interest and positive ETF inflows. The eventual breakout suggests renewed buying conviction and potentially broader market participation.
With momentum building, Thielen’s short-term price target for Bitcoin stands at $48,000, a level that represents both psychological significance and alignment with prior Fibonacci extension zones.
Elliott Wave Theory Points to $52,000 by Mid-March
Looking beyond the immediate rally, Thielen applied Elliott Wave theory to project longer-term trajectory. This form of technical analysis interprets market cycles as a series of five impulse waves (in the direction of the main trend) followed by three corrective waves.
According to his assessment, Bitcoin completed its Wave 4 retracement when it dipped to $38,500 in late January. The current uptrend represents **Wave 5**—the final and often most powerful phase of a bull cycle. Based on wave projections and momentum indicators, Thielen forecasts Bitcoin could reach **$52,000 by mid-March**.
Wave 5 movements are typically characterized by accelerating price action, increased media coverage, and growing retail participation—conditions that are beginning to emerge in the current market environment.
Broader Bull Market Outlook: Peak Expected in 2025
While short- and medium-term targets are compelling, Thielen believes the overall bull market is far from over. He anticipates the rally could extend well into 2025, with a potential peak occurring between April and September 2025.
Several macro factors support this extended timeline:
- Monetary policy shifts: Anticipated rate cuts by central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, could boost risk appetite.
- U.S. election cycle: Historical data shows strong asset performance in election years, particularly during the second half.
- Institutional adoption: Growing interest from traditional finance players and increasing tokenization of real-world assets are expanding Bitcoin’s investor base.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs: The approval and ongoing success of ETFs in the U.S. have created new on-ramps for capital.
Thielen previously projected a year-end 2024 target of $70,000, citing favorable macro conditions and rising demand from institutional investors.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Why does Chinese New Year affect Bitcoin prices?
A: The Lunar New Year period coincides with increased disposable income in Asian markets, where cash bonuses and gifts often lead to higher investment activity. Historically, some of this capital has flowed into cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, creating seasonal demand spikes.
Q: Is the $44,000 breakout confirmed?
A: Yes—Bitcoin not only cleared $44,000 but has held above it with increasing volume, turning former resistance into support. This strengthens the bullish case for further gains toward $48,000 and beyond.
Q: What is Wave 5 in Elliott Wave theory?
A: Wave 5 is the final upward phase in an impulsive bull cycle. It often features strong momentum and widespread optimism, though it can also include signs of exhaustion near its peak.
Q: When could Bitcoin reach $70,000?
A: Based on current trends and macro tailwinds, analysts project Bitcoin could hit $70,000 by late 2024—assuming sustained institutional inflows and favorable regulatory developments.
Q: How reliable is historical data for predicting crypto prices?
A: While past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, recurring patterns—especially those tied to human behavior and market cycles—can provide valuable context for traders and investors.
Q: What happens after Wave 5 ends?
A: After completing a five-wave cycle, markets typically enter a corrective phase (A-B-C correction), which may involve price consolidation or a pullback before the next major trend begins.
Final Thoughts: Strategic Timing Meets Technical Momentum
Bitcoin’s current trajectory reflects a convergence of seasonal trends, technical breakouts, and macroeconomic tailwinds. The consistent Lunar New Year rally pattern offers more than anecdotal evidence—it highlights how cultural and financial rhythms can influence global markets.
With Elliott Wave analysis pointing to a powerful final impulse wave and institutional adoption accelerating, the path toward $52,000 by mid-March appears increasingly plausible. Beyond that, the broader bull cycle may still have room to run into 2025.
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For investors and traders alike, understanding both cyclical patterns and structural shifts is essential for navigating volatility and capturing opportunity in one of the most dynamic markets today.