Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at a significant discount to its estimated intrinsic value, with fresh data suggesting a growing wave of institutional demand. Amid a surge in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and major exchange withdrawals, analysts are revisiting long-term price models and historical patterns to forecast the next leg of BTC’s potential rally—possibly pushing past $100,000 by April 2025.
Bitcoin’s Intrinsic Value vs. Market Price
According to Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, Bitcoin is now trading approximately 40% below its intrinsic value. This assessment is rooted in the “energy value” model, which calculates BTC’s fair price based on the real-world costs of mining—primarily electricity and hardware.
👉 Discover how market cycles and mining economics shape Bitcoin’s true value
Following the April 2024 Bitcoin halving, block rewards were reduced from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block. This scarcity mechanism has driven up the production cost of each new Bitcoin. Edwards’ analysis suggests that, under current energy and operational costs, the energy-derived fair value of Bitcoin now stands at $130,000.
Despite this, BTC trades around $96,000 as of late April 2025—indicating a substantial undervaluation. Historically, such gaps between market price and intrinsic value have preceded strong upward corrections, especially when combined with bullish on-chain and institutional activity.
Institutional Demand Fuels Record ETF Inflows
One of the most compelling signs of growing institutional confidence is the explosive growth in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows. In a single week, these funds attracted nearly $3 billion in net purchases, according to Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg.
This surge reflects a coordinated shift by asset managers, pension funds, and corporate treasuries seeking regulated exposure to Bitcoin. Unlike earlier cycles driven by retail speculation, the current rally is increasingly being shaped by institutional capital deployment through compliant financial products.
The timing aligns with increased Bitcoin withdrawals from major exchanges like Coinbase and Binance—behavior often associated with long-term holders moving assets into cold storage or custodial wallets.
Exchange Outflows Signal Accumulation
CryptoQuant data reveals that over 8,756 BTC (worth roughly $830 million) was withdrawn from Coinbase on April 24, 2025. This marked one of the largest single-day outflows in the exchange’s history. Similarly, Binance saw a withdrawal of 27,750 BTC on April 25—ranked as the third-largest outflow event ever recorded on the platform, according to Joao Wedson, founder of Alphractal.
Large-scale withdrawals do not automatically confirm price increases, but they are often interpreted as a sign of strong holder conviction and reduced sell-side pressure. When coins leave exchanges, they become less liquid and less likely to be sold in the near term.
“Exchange outflows reflect accumulation behavior,” says Wedson. “We saw massive outflows before the 2021 bull run—but also during FTX’s collapse, which signaled a market bottom. Context matters.”
While outflows alone aren’t predictive, their convergence with rising ETF demand strengthens the case for sustained upward momentum.
Repeating History? The Fractal Pattern Pointing to $100K
Technical analysts are closely watching a recurring fractal pattern in Bitcoin’s price action. A fractal, in trading terms, refers to a self-repeating structure across different timeframes that may hint at future movements.
Bitcoin’s weekly performance in April 2025 marks its best return since November 2024, mirroring the explosive growth seen in Q4 2024. During that earlier period—from November 5 to 9—BTC surged 13%, followed by another 15% gain over the next two days. Notably, both breakouts occurred over weekends, when traditional markets were closed but crypto trading continued unabated.
👉 See how historical patterns influence today’s market structure
Now, in April 2025, Bitcoin has already gained 11% between April 21 and 25. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows similar levels of buying pressure as seen in late 2024, suggesting that a further 7–10% upside could be imminent.
If this fractal repeats accurately, Bitcoin could突破 $100,000 within days.
However, analysts caution that repetition isn’t guaranteed. Unlike Q4 2024—when BTC entered a phase of open-ended price discovery with minimal resistance—the current price zone near $96,100 faces strong overhead supply. This area previously acted as support and may now serve as resistance unless decisively breached.
Key Factors Influencing the Next Move
Several macro and micro factors will determine whether Bitcoin can sustain its upward trajectory:
- ETF momentum: Continued inflows into spot ETFs could absorb sell-side pressure and create structural demand.
- On-chain accumulation: Persistent exchange outflows suggest whales and institutions are accumulating.
- Market sentiment: Fear & Greed indicators are climbing into “greed” territory but remain below overheated levels.
- Macroeconomic backdrop: With inflation stabilizing and expectations of rate cuts in late 2025, risk assets like Bitcoin remain attractive.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What does it mean for Bitcoin to be "40% undervalued"?
A: It means that based on fundamental models—like mining cost or energy expenditure—Bitcoin’s fair value is estimated at $130,000, while it currently trades near $96,000. This gap suggests room for price appreciation if market conditions align.
Q: Are exchange outflows always bullish?
A: Not always. While outflows often signal accumulation, they can also precede large sell-offs if users withdraw to sell elsewhere. Context—such as concurrent ETF flows and price action—is critical.
Q: Can fractal patterns predict Bitcoin’s price?
A: Fractals offer insight into potential behavioral repetition but aren’t foolproof. They work best when combined with volume, momentum indicators, and macro trends.
Q: How do spot Bitcoin ETFs affect the market?
A: They provide regulated access to BTC for traditional investors. Net inflows indicate sustained demand and reduce circulating supply available for sale.
Q: Is $100,000 a realistic target for Bitcoin in April 2025?
A: Given current momentum, ETF inflows, and technical patterns, it’s plausible—but not guaranteed. A break above $96,100 with strong volume would increase the likelihood.
Final Outlook
Bitcoin’s current market dynamics reflect a confluence of undervaluation, institutional adoption, and technical momentum. With spot ETFs pulling in billions weekly and key on-chain metrics flashing accumulation signals, the foundation for a new all-time high appears solid.
👉 Explore real-time data and tools to track Bitcoin’s next move
While no model can predict the future with certainty, the alignment of energy-based valuation models, exchange flows, and historical fractals suggests that Bitcoin may be on the verge of another explosive leg higher—potentially reaching $100,000 or beyond in the coming weeks.
As always, investors should conduct independent research and assess risk tolerance before entering any position. Market cycles evolve rapidly, but those who understand the underlying drivers are better positioned to navigate them.