As the next Bitcoin halving event draws closer—projected for April 20, 2025—market sentiment is being tested. Historically, Bitcoin has entered a period of price correction in the weeks leading up to the halving, and analysts are now warning that we may be stepping into a familiar yet volatile phase known as the “danger zone.”
👉 Discover how market cycles shape Bitcoin’s price before major events like halvings.
Understanding the Pre-Halving "Danger Zone"
On March 17, cryptocurrency analyst Rekt Capital highlighted a recurring market pattern on X (formerly Twitter):
“Two days from now, Bitcoin will officially enter the 'danger zone'—historically, the pre-halving pullback begins.”
Rekt Capital explained that in past cycles, Bitcoin typically declined 14 to 28 days before the halving. During the 2016 halving cycle, Bitcoin dropped by as much as 40%, while in 2020, it saw a more moderate 20% correction before rebounding strongly post-event.
This year, Rekt Capital had earlier predicted a two-phase movement: a pre-halving rally approximately 60 days before the event, followed by a pullback one to three weeks prior. That forecast has held true. Bitcoin surged in mid-February, breaking its previous all-time high of $68,990 in March—an unprecedented occurrence, as it marked the first time Bitcoin reached new highs before the halving, defying historical trends.
Despite this bullish momentum, signs of short-term weakness have emerged. According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin’s price has retreated 8.5% from its peak of $73,835 on March 14 to around $67,537 at the time of writing. With the halving just over a month away, many investors are watching closely for further downside risk.
Why Past Cycles Matter
Bitcoin halvings—events that cut mining rewards in half and reduce new supply—are among the most anticipated catalysts in the crypto market. Occurring roughly every four years, they historically precede major bull runs due to supply scarcity. However, the path isn’t always smooth.
The concept of a “danger zone” reflects investor psychology and market mechanics:
- Traders often take profits after strong rallies.
- Leverage gets unwound during consolidation phases.
- Uncertainty around timing creates short-term volatility.
Yet these corrections have historically been short-lived, setting the stage for stronger upward momentum after the halving.
Industry Leaders Stay Confident Despite Pullback
Even as prices cool slightly, top executives in the crypto space remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.
Binance CEO: $80K Target by Year-End
Richard Teng, CEO of Binance, expressed strong confidence during a panel in Bangkok on March 17. He stated that Bitcoin is “just getting started” and predicted it could surpass $80,000 by the end of 2025.
Teng emphasized that while the journey won’t be linear—“there will be volatility along the way”—the fundamentals support higher prices. He cited increasing institutional adoption via U.S.-based Bitcoin ETFs as a key driver. Data from Dune Analytics shows these ETFs now manage over $57 billion in assets, signaling growing trust from traditional finance players.
👉 See how institutional inflows are reshaping Bitcoin’s market dynamics.
Crypto.com CEO: This Dip Is Healthy
Kris Marszalek, co-founder and CEO of Crypto.com, echoed similar sentiments in a March 15 interview with CNBC. He described the recent price drop as a “healthy move” that helps clear excessive leverage built up during the rally.
Marszalek noted that current market behavior resembles the early phase of the 2020–2021 bull run, when Bitcoin climbed from under $20,000 to over $60,000 within just a few months. Interestingly, he pointed out that today’s volatility is actually lower than in previous cycles, suggesting maturation in market structure.
“Bitcoin is an asset you want to hold for decades, not days or weeks,” Marszalek said, reinforcing a long-term investment mindset.
He expects prices to rise steadily, with fewer sudden swings over time—a sign of increasing market resilience and broader adoption.
Key Keywords Driving Market Sentiment
Understanding Bitcoin’s behavior around halvings requires attention to several core concepts:
- Bitcoin halving
- Pre-halving correction
- Institutional adoption
- Market volatility
- Bitcoin ETFs
- Supply scarcity
- Crypto market cycles
- Price prediction
These keywords reflect both technical and psychological factors influencing investor decisions. They also align with high-volume search queries as users seek clarity amid shifting prices.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is the Bitcoin halving?
The Bitcoin halving is an event that occurs approximately every four years (every 210,000 blocks) where the block reward given to miners is cut in half. This reduces the rate of new Bitcoin creation, increasing scarcity and historically contributing to long-term price appreciation.
Q: Why does Bitcoin often drop before the halving?
Historically, Bitcoin enters a correction phase 2–4 weeks before the halving due to profit-taking after pre-event rallies, leveraged position liquidations, and uncertainty about post-halving performance. However, these dips have typically been temporary.
Q: Is the 2025 halving already priced in?
While some bullish sentiment is reflected in current prices—especially with Bitcoin hitting new highs before the event—many analysts believe full price discovery happens after the halving, once supply constraints become more pronounced and demand continues to grow.
Q: How do Bitcoin ETFs impact the market?
Bitcoin spot ETFs allow traditional investors to gain exposure without holding crypto directly. The influx of institutional capital through these products adds stability and demand, reducing reliance on retail speculation and potentially smoothing out extreme price swings.
Q: Should I sell before the halving?
Timing the market is risky. While short-term volatility is expected, historical data suggests holding through the halving has yielded strong returns over 6–18 months afterward. A long-term strategy focused on dollar-cost averaging may be more effective than trying to time dips.
👉 Learn how smart investors navigate halving cycles with strategic entry points.
Final Thoughts: Volatility Is Normal—But So Is Growth
While Bitcoin may be entering a historically weak period known as the “danger zone,” context matters. This cycle differs from past ones:
- For the first time, Bitcoin hit new highs before the halving.
- Institutional participation is significantly higher.
- Global awareness and infrastructure maturity have improved dramatically.
Short-term price movements should not overshadow long-term fundamentals. With supply tightening and demand rising—fueled by ETF inflows and global macro trends—many experts believe we’re still in the early stages of a major bull run.
Whether you're a seasoned trader or a long-term holder, understanding market cycles and maintaining discipline can make all the difference. As history shows, patience often pays off in the world of Bitcoin.