The current Bitcoin bull cycle may be entering its final phase, according to a well-known market analyst who previously accurately forecasted key market movements. Rekt Capital, a respected technical analyst with over 108,000 YouTube followers, has issued a timely warning that the majority of the current price surge could already be behind us — leaving only a narrow window for further gains.
Drawing from historical Bitcoin market cycles and technical price patterns, Rekt Capital suggests that the asset may have already completed approximately 88% of its total bull run from the recent bear market bottom. This implies that while upside potential remains, the risk-reward balance is increasingly skewed toward downside volatility in the coming months.
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Understanding the 88% Bull Market Completion Theory
Rekt Capital’s analysis hinges on comparing the current rally to previous Bitcoin cycles, particularly focusing on the time and price expansion following halving events. Historically, Bitcoin tends to experience its most aggressive price increases between six to nine months after the halving — a period we are now approaching or possibly exiting.
“If we’re talking about September, October — and right now it’s only July — then this bull market might already be two to three months into its peak phase,” Rekt explained in a recent video update.
By measuring the percentage of price growth achieved relative to past cycles, he estimates that Bitcoin has already realized about 88% of its total expected rally from the cycle low. This doesn’t mean prices can’t go higher, but rather that the remaining upside is likely limited compared to what’s already occurred.
In practical terms, this suggests:
- The most explosive phase of the bull run is likely over.
- Future gains, if any, will be more gradual and harder to achieve.
- Market sentiment may begin shifting toward profit-taking and caution.
This model aligns with the concept of parabolic blow-offs, where assets experience a final sharp spike before reversing — often catching late-stage investors off guard.
Potential Price Target: $140,000
Despite the cautious outlook, Rekt Capital hasn’t ruled out one last surge before the cycle peaks. He points to a possible short-term target of **$140,000**, which would represent roughly a 28% increase from current levels (as of this writing, BTC trades around $109,463).
This projection is based on:
- Historical resistance zones and Fibonacci extensions.
- On-chain data showing accumulation patterns among long-term holders.
- Increased institutional inflows via spot Bitcoin ETFs.
However, Rekt emphasizes that even if this target is reached, it could mark the final high before a significant correction begins. The analogy he uses is that of a “last hurrah” — a final celebration before the market resets.
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Why This Cycle Might Feel Different
Some analysts argue that the 2024–2025 Bitcoin cycle is fundamentally different from prior ones due to several macro-level shifts:
- Spot Bitcoin ETF approvals in the U.S. have unlocked massive institutional capital.
- Growing global adoption in countries exploring digital currencies.
- Increased retail participation through simplified trading platforms.
These factors have led some to believe the bull market could extend well into late 2025 or even 2026. However, Rekt Capital cautions against overconfidence, reminding investors that markets ultimately follow cyclical patterns, regardless of narrative shifts.
“While new developments change the context, they don’t eliminate the underlying market psychology of greed and fear,” he notes.
Past cycles show that optimism peaks when nearly everyone expects prices to keep rising — often right before a reversal occurs.
Key Bitcoin Market Cycle Stages
To better understand where we stand today, it helps to break down a typical Bitcoin bull cycle into distinct phases:
1. Accumulation Phase
After the bear market bottom, smart money begins quietly buying. Volatility is low, and public interest is minimal.
2. Markup Phase
Price starts gaining momentum as more traders notice the uptrend. Media coverage increases, and FOMO begins building.
3. Euphoria Phase
Retail investors flood in en masse. Headlines scream record highs. This is often when the last major rally occurs — potentially where we are now.
4. Distribution & Downturn
Early investors take profits. Price stagnates or reverses, leading to panic selling and the start of a new bear market.
Based on current sentiment and price action, many indicators suggest we are either in late markup or early euphoria — making timing critical for traders and long-term holders alike.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: How reliable is the 88% bull market completion metric?
A: It’s derived from historical patterns across multiple cycles, making it a useful guideline — not a guarantee. While not perfect, it reflects how much of the typical price expansion has already occurred relative to past trends.
Q: Could Bitcoin still go higher after $140,000?
A: Yes, but such moves would likely be short-lived and driven by extreme speculation. Sustained growth beyond that level would require unprecedented adoption or macroeconomic shifts.
Q: What signals should I watch for a market top?
A: Key signs include extreme bullish sentiment (e.g., 90%+ “Bitcoin will keep rising” polls), rising exchange reserves (indicating profit-taking), and slowing on-chain transaction volumes despite high prices.
Q: Is it too late to invest in Bitcoin now?
A: It depends on your time horizon. For long-term holders (3–5+ years), buying at current levels can still make sense. For short-term traders, the risk of entering near a peak is significantly higher.
Q: How does the halving affect this cycle’s timeline?
A: The April 2024 halving reduced new Bitcoin supply by 50%, historically a bullish catalyst. However, its full impact typically unfolds over 6–18 months — meaning we may be near the tail end of its influence.
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Final Thoughts: Prepare for Volatility Ahead
While Bitcoin continues to trade strongly — up 3.1% in the past 24 hours — signs point to a maturing bull market. Rekt Capital’s warning serves as a timely reminder that timing matters in crypto investing.
The combination of advanced price expansion (88% complete), potential parabolic exhaustion, and seasonal timing all suggest that we may be within months of a cycle peak. Whether BTC hits $140,000 or falls short, what follows could be a prolonged consolidation or correction phase.
For investors, this means:
- Reviewing portfolio allocations.
- Setting realistic profit targets.
- Preparing for increased volatility.
- Avoiding emotional decisions during extreme price swings.
As always in cryptocurrency markets, staying informed and disciplined is key to navigating both booms and busts.
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